About The Jaibik Map Project

JaibikMap: Nepal’s Biodiversity and Climate Change Tool for the Future

Background

Fragile ecosystems and biodiversity are increasingly impacted by climate change – of which Nepal is recognized as being the 13th most vulnerable country worldwide (USAID, 2015). Analysis of maximum surface temperature records from 49 stations in Nepal between 1971-1994 yielded a consistent increase after the mid-1970s, at a rate higher than the global average (Shrestha et al 1999). Despite some evidence of change, IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report designated Nepal a “white spot” because of the limited scientific studies conducted in the region, especially linking climate change with impacts on ecosystems in Nepal.

Some studies have been conducted at the regional level to assess the impact of climate change on shifts in bioclimatic zones (Zomer, et al. 2014), whereas others have focused on particular conservation areas within Nepal as a micro-analysis of changes (Gaire, et al 2014; Mainali, et al. 2015). The only national level, preliminary study on the effects of climate change on vegetation revealed that Nepal has 15 types of Holdridge Life Zones – a global bioclimatic scheme for classification of local ecosystem types– but if atmospheric CO2 were to double, there may be a reduction of vegetation types to 12 (Jha, 2006). This will affect all biodiversity within these zones. A decade later, verification through geospatial technology and on- ground validation are possible and necessary.

This national forest change analysis (conducted by the project’s co-PI) was included in Nepal’s “Initial National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” (2004). A priority action suggested from this analysis aimed at “refining climatological projection and increase the understanding of how climate affects species”. Such analysis has yet to be undertaken nationally (and at any level for mammalian species). More recently, the Government of Nepal’s Department of National Parks and Wildlife Service (a project Co-PI) explained in a special bulletin that some keystone species, such as the one-horned rhino, have already been affected due to shifting habitats. Despite the report’s plea for action, no rigorous, scientific analysis has been conducted in Nepal to predict shifting habitats, leaving planning tragically uninformed (DNPWC, 2015). In Nepal, a need for species distribution modelling (SDM) accounting for projected habitat changes is needed.

As a research methodology, SDM has been used to project the potential effects of anthropogenic global warming on plant species distributions and ecosystems’ properties for more than two decades (Neilson et al., 1992; Lenihan &Neilson, 1993; Mackey & Sims, 1993; Iverson & Prasad, 1998; Rehfeldt et al., 2006; Iverson et al., 2008). Such vegetative changes in turn cause shifts in the distribution of mammals varying in magnitude based on the rigidity of a particular species’ ability to adapt (McKelvey, et al. 2013). Cutting-edge research has integrated landscape factors (Fan, et al. 2014) and climate and remote sensing data (Cord & Rodder, 2011) to create models that can help predict how species- and geographically-diverse-habitats shift under different climate change scenarios. Testing the transferability of similar, adapted SDM methods in Nepal is important for species conservation globally.

While current knowledge of Nepal’s 208 known mammal species, compiled during the IUCN-protocol driven “Status of Nepal’s Mammals: the National Red List Series” (Jnawali et al. 2011), is known statically, the study lacks means of maximizing loss prevention of biodiversity due to climate change – both in terms of geographic/habit factors (along diverse, albeit vanishing, Life Zones) and over time. The same is true for endemic plant species, as well as the little-known phenological patterns of Nepal. This leaves decisions to be made blind to future challenges causing planning to be reactive rather than proactive. This problem will be addressed by filling the gap in national-level impacts of climate change on forest cover, and then answering specific questions of habitat shifts for key mammal and endemic plant species.

Looking forward, a broader challenge lies in Nepal’s current state of data acquisition, sharing and interpretation capacity must also be addressed. Past studies are kept in hard copy, often inaccessible to disparate groups (academics, government workers, etc.); data is also not sourced democratically, leading to gaps in information at the central, decision-making level, yet un-harnessed at the local level. To make species distribution modelling a reality, it is necessary to both create a tool for data visualization and interpretation as well as to capacitate key stakeholders in its use and cutting-edge methods. The JaibikMap, addresses these dual challenges – answering a clear research challenge that has immediate conservation implications while also creating a tool for future challenges to be solved.

Objectives

The JaibikMap Project, in creating the first open-software mapping tool of its kind in Nepal, has the overarching goal of creating a platform which liberates data and amplifies potential for citizen-centred data acquisition, making it useful and relevant to a variety of stakeholders. Two mutually-reinforcing research objectives will be answered through this endeavour, the former being a development question and the latter a scientific one.

  1. How can we enable and inspire conservation advances by lifting the existing barriers in data science and capacitating emerging researchers (from government ministries to citizen scientists)?
  2. How can this tool be applied to cutting-edge research questions (linking climate change modelling with species distribution modelling) to not only provide a proof of concept for emerging, innovative mapping tools, but also inform conservation and development planning?

From these two objectives, the JaibikMap Project contains the following specific outcomes:

  1. Establish a visual representation of mammalian species abundance, status, distribution and habitat requirements for all 208 mammal species occurring in Nepal; and overlay this data against location/distribution of existing land use and habitat, settlements and roads.
  2. Model changes in Nepal’s forest cover, composition and distribution in light of various future climate change (emissions) scenarios. Conduct innovative species distribution modelling based on the results. Build capacity at all levels for the model’s uptake and general conservation.
  3. Incorporating all of the aforementioned data (Objectives 1 and 2), develop an interactive, slippy (with zooming capability), open data web-based map and associated Android Phone application to enable the public to submit opportunistic photographs of mammal sightings to the JaibikMap. Disseminate the product and train stakeholders in its use, and provide protocols among stakeholders for its continual application.
  4. Ensure the project translates to impacts on USAID development objectives through capacity development, information dissemination/integration, and sustainability measures.

Existing datasets useful to the project, such as those developed through the USAID funded SERVIR Himalaya project, will be accessed to save time, reduce duplication, and leverage existing funds to solve new challenges.